HARARE, ZIMBABWE – Zimbabwe risks missing its ambition of becoming an upper-middle-income economy by 2030, with the World Bank warning that the country’s current growth path could push the milestone back by six years.
The assessment comes despite an improvement in economic stability and several years of relatively strong growth. Zimbabwe’s economy expanded by an average of nearly 6% between 2021 and 2025, while tighter fiscal and monetary policies helped bring local currency inflation into single digits in early 2026. Yet the World Bank’s latest Growth and Jobs Report says stability alone will not be enough.
Under the country’s current trajectory, economic growth is expected to average about 4% through 2030. That would leave Zimbabwe reaching upper-middle-income status around 2036 rather than the government’s Vision 2030 deadline.
Closing that gap will depend heavily on whether Zimbabwe can turn economic stability into investment, productive businesses and better-paying jobs.
The challenge is particularly visible in the labour market. Around 80% of Zimbabweans work in the informal economy, where median monthly earnings are about US$130. Nearly half of the population also lives below the international poverty line.
Those figures expose one of the country’s biggest economic challenges: growth has not yet created enough formal employment or translated into stronger incomes for many households.
Infrastructure presents another obstacle. Persistent electricity shortages are estimated to cost Zimbabwe the equivalent of 6.1% of GDP each year. Businesses face unreliable power alongside transport, irrigation and other infrastructure constraints that increase operating costs and limit productivity.
The consequences extend across an economy rich in minerals and agricultural resources. Zimbabwe has significant opportunities in mining, manufacturing, agriculture and regional trade, but converting those advantages into sustained growth requires reliable infrastructure and an environment capable of attracting long-term investment.
The World Bank estimates that stronger reforms could lift real GDP by an additional 10.7% above the baseline by 2030 and 26.9% by 2040.
Up to 230,000 jobs could also be created, while real worker earnings could rise by more than 30% over the longer term. Reaching that potential would require improvements beyond electricity and transport. The report calls for simpler business permits, lower administrative costs, easier cross-border trade and better access to finance.
Resolving Zimbabwe’s longstanding debt and arrears would also be important. Progress could help restore access to concessional international financing and provide greater room to fund infrastructure and development.
Zimbabwe’s Vision 2030 ambition is therefore entering a decisive period. The country has restored a degree of economic stability after years of severe currency and inflation pressures. The next challenge is more difficult: ensuring that stability reaches businesses looking to invest, workers searching for secure employment and households seeking better living standards.
The World Bank’s assessment does not place Vision 2030 beyond reach. Instead, it makes the cost of moving too slowly increasingly clear.
Zimbabwe has less than four years to close the distance between its economic ambition and its current trajectory. Whether it reaches that target will depend less on the promise of its natural resources and more on how quickly reforms turn those resources into investment, productivity and jobs.
